Macron, Le Pen, and the Embezzlement Verdict: A Legal Ruling or Political Ploy?

By Devin Breitenberg

On March 31, 2025, a French court handed down a bombshell verdict: Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally (RN), was convicted of embezzling European Parliament funds. The sentence—four years in prison (two suspended, two under house arrest with an electronic bracelet), a €250,000 fine, and a five-year ban from public office—effectively bars her from the 2027 presidential election, where she was poised as a formidable challenger to Emmanuel Macron’s centrist legacy. While the ruling stems from a decade-long investigation into financial misconduct, a vocal chorus of Le Pen’s supporters, alongside international far-right figures, has seized on the timing and consequences to paint a different picture: that Macron is orchestrating her punishment to neutralize a political rival surging in the polls.

The Legal Context

The case revolves around the misuse of €6.8 million in European Parliament funds between 2004 and 2016. Prosecutors alleged that Le Pen and other RN officials diverted money intended for EU parliamentary assistants to pay party staff in France, a practice known as "fictitious employment." After years of investigation and a three-month trial, the court found Le Pen guilty, alongside three co-defendants, including her former partner Louis Aliot. The sentence is suspended pending appeal, but the ban from public office, enforced immediately under a "provisional execution" clause, delivers an instant blow to her political career.

Le Pen has denounced the verdict as a "political decision," vowing to appeal and framing it as an assault on her democratic rights. Her party has long argued that the charges are a witch hunt by a pro-EU establishment fearful of her anti-immigration, Euroskeptic platform. The judicial process, however, predates her recent electoral gains, rooted in audits and complaints filed as early as 2015 by the European Parliament itself.

The Political Stakes

Le Pen’s rise has been undeniable. In the 2022 presidential runoff, she secured 41% of the vote against Macron—an 8-point jump from 2017—narrowing the gap with the incumbent. Subsequent legislative and European elections saw RN cement its status as France’s leading opposition force, capitalizing on discontent over inflation, immigration, and Macron’s pension reforms. Polls leading into 2025 consistently showed Le Pen as a top contender for 2027, a race Macron cannot contest due to term limits. Her sidelining now clears a path for his allies or alternative candidates, though it risks galvanizing her base further.

The Narrative Shift

Within hours of the verdict, a narrative took root—amplified on social media platforms and by far-right leaders globally—that Macron is punishing Le Pen for her electoral strength. Supporters point to the timing: with RN riding high and Macron’s approval ratings languishing, the conviction conveniently eliminates his most potent adversary. Social media posts have called it a “coup against democracy,” with claims like “Macron jails Le Pen because she’s crushing him in the polls” gaining traction. High-profile figures, including Donald Trump, who labeled it “election interference French-style,” and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, who hailed Le Pen as a “martyr for freedom,” have fueled this storyline.

The narrative hinges on a few key distortions. First, it implies Macron directly controls the judiciary, an assertion at odds with France’s separation of powers. The case was driven by independent prosecutors and judges, not presidential decree. Second, it ties the verdict to recent polls, ignoring that the investigation began a decade ago, long before Le Pen’s current momentum. Yet the optics—her ban just as she peaks—lend credence to conspiracy theories among her base and beyond.

Why the Narrative Persists

This reframing thrives because it taps into broader distrust of elites, a hallmark of Le Pen’s appeal. Her supporters see the judiciary as a tool of the “globalist” establishment Macron embodies, a sentiment echoed in France’s polarized political climate. The provisional execution of the ban, a rare measure, adds ammunition: why enforce it now, before appeals, if not to kneecap her? Legal experts note it’s within prosecutorial discretion for serious financial crimes, but to Le Pen’s camp, it’s proof of malice.

The international far-right has leapt to her defense, casting her as a populist hero felled by a corrupt system—a playbook familiar from Trump’s own legal battles. This solidarity amplifies the narrative, turning a French court ruling into a global cause célèbre. Meanwhile, Macron’s silence—he has not publicly commented—leaves room for speculation, though any statement risks inflaming tensions further.

The Bigger Picture

The truth likely lies in a gray zone. The conviction is a legal outcome, not a Macron-orchestrated hit job, but its political fallout is seismic. Le Pen’s absence from 2027 could fracture RN, elevate lesser-known rivals like Jordan Bardella, or radicalize the far-right electorate, potentially destabilizing France further. For Macron’s camp, it’s a double-edged sword: a neutralized threat, but at the cost of deepening accusations of authoritarianism.

As Le Pen’s appeal unfolds, the battle over this narrative will intensify. Her supporters will keep pushing the “punished for winning” line, leveraging every poll to argue she’s a victim of politics, not justice. Whether that resonates enough to reshape France’s future—or merely entrenches its divides—remains the question hanging over April 1, 2025.

Devin Breitenberg is a legal consultant and senior counsel at Devin Law LLC and legal contributor  for Veritas Expositae.  You can reach her at devin.breitenberg@veritasexpositae.com