Liberal Party's Stunning Comeback: Mark Carney Leads Liberals to Fourth Term in 2025 Canadian Federal Election

By Georgia Hermiston

In one of the most remarkable political comebacks in Canadian history, the Liberal Party, led by former central banker Mark Carney, has secured a fourth consecutive term in the 2025 federal election. Overcoming massive early deficits in the polls, internal party struggles, and widespread voter fatigue, the Liberals defied expectations to maintain power in a fiercely contested and historic election.

A Historic Turnaround

Only months ago, the Liberal Party appeared to be on the verge of collapse. After nearly a decade in office under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the Liberals were suffering from deep unpopularity, sagging approval ratings, and accusations of ethical misconduct. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre enjoyed a commanding 20-point lead in national polls as recently as February 2025.

The Liberal Party’s decision to replace Trudeau with Mark Carney — a figure respected globally for his tenure as Governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England — proved pivotal. Carney’s appointment injected new credibility into the Liberals’ platform, particularly on the economy, fiscal policy, and international relations.

“It was a calculated risk, and it worked,” said University of Toronto political science professor Andrea Mitchell. “Carney gave the Liberals an image of steady, competent leadership at a time when Canadians were deeply anxious about the future.”

Election Results: A Strong Minority Government

The Liberals captured 168 seats out of 343 in the House of Commons — just four seats shy of a majority. While not an outright majority, the Liberals' seat count gives them a clear path to govern, with the support of either the New Democratic Party (NDP) or the Green Party likely to ensure legislative stability.

The Conservative Party secured 139 seats, falling short despite early polling advantages. The NDP increased their seat count to 29, while the Bloc Québécois maintained 31 seats, and the Greens posted a modest gain with 6 seats. Several independents were also elected.

Voter turnout was notably high at 71%, indicating strong public engagement amid a tense and emotionally charged campaign.

Key Factors Behind the Liberal Victory

Several interwoven factors contributed to the Liberals’ stunning reversal of fortune:

1. The Trump Factor

The election took place against a backdrop of heightened tensions with the United States. U.S. President Donald Trump's newly re-elected administration had adopted increasingly aggressive policies toward Canada, including threats of tariffs, border disruptions, and inflammatory rhetoric suggesting U.S. annexation of resource-rich regions of Canada.

The backlash in Canada was swift and intense. National pride surged, and Carney adeptly positioned himself as the "defender of Canadian sovereignty," emphasizing the need for political experience and financial acumen to navigate the turbulent relationship with the U.S. “We will never be intimidated. We will never compromise on our values or our sovereignty,” Carney declared in his final rally in Toronto.

2. Leadership and Economic Credibility

Carney’s expertise in monetary policy and global finance reassured Canadians worried about inflation, housing affordability, and post-pandemic economic recovery. His platform focused heavily on practical economic measures, such as middle-class tax relief, investments in green energy, and an ambitious national housing strategy. “Mark Carney made voters feel that the adults were back in charge,” said veteran political commentator Chantal Hébert.

3. Poilievre’s Missteps

Pierre Poilievre struggled to balance his populist base with moderate voters. His perceived closeness to Trump alienated key demographics, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia. Additionally, controversial comments about cutting immigration and rolling back climate policies hurt his standing among urban and younger voters.

4. The Power of the Centre-Left Coalition

Strategic voting played a significant role. In key ridings across Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia, progressive voters rallied behind Liberal candidates to block Conservative victories, even when local NDP candidates were strong contenders.

Carney's Victory Speech: A Call for Unity

In an emotional speech in Ottawa, Carney promised to govern for “every Canadian,” whether they voted Liberal or not. “Tonight, Canada has chosen hope over fear. Strength over division. We are one nation, proud, resilient, and unbreakable,” he told a cheering crowd.

He outlined immediate priorities for his government:

Bolstering national defense and cybersecurity in response to external threats.

Launching a national affordable housing program.

Expanding green infrastructure projects to combat climate change.

Strengthening ties with European and Asian partners to diversify Canada’s trade portfolio.

He also emphasized a commitment to indigenous reconciliation, gender equality, and bilingualism.

Challenges Ahead

Despite the triumph, Carney faces significant challenges:

Managing a Minority Government: Without a clear majority, every major piece of legislation will require negotiation.

Economic Volatility: The global economy remains fragile, with supply chain issues, inflationary pressures, and trade instability.

Foreign Policy Risks: Relations with the U.S. are at their lowest point in decades, requiring deft diplomacy.

Reaction at Home and Abroad

Across Canada, reactions to the election were mixed but largely marked by relief that political stability had been maintained. In Quebec, Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet acknowledged the Liberal win but vowed to "defend Quebec’s interests fiercely" in the new Parliament.

Internationally, world leaders congratulated Carney, with messages from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan emphasizing their commitment to working with Canada on global challenges. Conversely, the White House issued a notably terse statement congratulating Carney while reaffirming its "America First" trade priorities.

What's Next?

Carney is expected to unveil his new cabinet within the week, with insiders suggesting key appointments for experienced figures in finance, foreign affairs, and public safety.

Parliament will reconvene in mid-May, where the Liberals will present their first major legislative package — likely focusing on housing affordability and defense spending.

Meanwhile, Conservative insiders have hinted that Pierre Poilievre’s leadership may come under scrutiny, with possible leadership reviews looming.

Georgia Hermiston is a registered nurse and a freelance writer for Veritas Expositae

You can reach her at Georgia.hermiston@veritasexpositae.com